Keeping climate change risks at bay

A sea change

It's 8:04 PM, and I've just arrived at La Baule's train station. I'm carrying a mild hangover from a Halloween party alongside three incredibly heavy bags that contain 90% of what I own.

I've recently decided to move here. I deemed it the perfect place to focus on productive things, such as writing articles about climate change, and more stupid things, such as training for an Ironman.

A few minutes before reaching the station, I opened Instagram and saw a post from La Baule's account. A short video from the mayor warns citizens of flooding risks, trees falling and 100 km/h winds. Great, I thought.

When I get on the platform, storm Ciaran is hitting the west of France with full force. I somehow manage to reach my home, drenched to the bone by torrential rain. By now, I'm seriously questioning my life decisions.

As I write this, many trees have been uprooted, I hear howling winds, and the ocean looks like it's having a massive tantrum. All of this has got me thinking about the city's exposure to climate change risks.

We can't wave off climate risks

My family has been coming to La Baule every summer since the 1940s, creating many memories. Thinking about its exposure to climate risks is rather daunting.

Globally, mitigating the physical effects of climate change, such as droughts, heatwaves, and storms, requires limiting warming to well below 2°C and ideally to a maximum of 1.5°C.

The latest IPCC report declared that surface temperatures are already 1.1°C higher than pre-industrial levels. I wanted to zoom in to see how La Baule was faring.

Meteoblue holds data on temperature changes in La Baule since 1979. Over the past ten years, I calculated a yearly average +0.72°C anomaly compared to mean temperatures between 1980–2010.

While historical data is alarming, I wanted to see what the future might hold. Climate scenarios developed by Météo-France allow people to see how climate change will impact their city by 2050.

The following results are for a scenario aligned with the world's current policies on climate change, with sustained reductions achieved by 2050. This scenario would lead to a global warming of 2.2°C by mid-century.

In such a scenario, La Baule's average temperature would increase to 13.4°C by 2050, compared to its 1976–2005 average of 12°C. This 1.4°C warming would also lead to a yearly doubling of abnormally hot days.

By the end of the century, it is estimated that sea levels in the region could rise by 38 cm in a low-emission scenario and by 76 cm if no significant efforts are made to reduce emissions.

To continue on the intermediate scenario analysis, I'll assume a rise of 50 cm. In that case, my grandparent's home would be in a zone exposed to marine submersion risks.

Getting our heads out of the sand

It's scary to think about how climate change will impact La Baule in the coming years, but climate change risks and extreme weather events are already here.

Locals would undoubtedly remember the night of the 27th of February 2010 when storm Xynthia hit La Baule. A combination of strong winds and high tide led to an influx of seawater in the port.

Over 200 buildings were flooded in the city, with water levels ranging between 10 and 50 centimetres within impacted homes. Pictures show a road submerged by water.

Other dangers come from the oceans, such as coastal erosion. In 2022, La Baule was one of the 126 cities identified by the French government as most vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion risks.

Known for its 9-kilometre bay of fine sand, its existence is under threat. Between 1990–2000, it is estimated that the ocean swallowed 80,000 m3 of sand. Every year, approximately 15,000 m3 of sand has to be replaced.

Beyond the seas, La Baule is also exposed to risks on land. Its 475 hectares of forests make up 17% of its territory. Unfortunately, the city is no stranger to forest fires.

I remember a summer when we started seeing smoke coming from La Baule's forest. We were playing beach volleyball when we realized a dark cloud of smoke was forming above the forest.

On the 12th of August 2022, 2 hectares went up in flames. This was during a time of intense droughts in the region. Writing this, I recall public showers on the beach being shut down to reduce water consumption.

The coast isn't clear

Storms will continue to be part of life for coastal towns like La Baule. However, their intensity and caused damages are at risk of increasing due to climate change.

The atmosphere can hold 7% more water vapour with every degree of warming. This additional moisture in the air could lead to heavier rainfall during storms, increasing the chances of flooding.

The risks are compounded by rising sea levels, which could lead to higher storm surges. The submersion faced in 2010 during Xynthia could be far more dangerous for La Baule in a future impacted by climate change.

Indeed, it is estimated that Xynthia happening again in La Baule with sea levels 20cm higher would impact 656 people and 120 jobs. With sea levels 60cm higher, 1394 people and 366 would be at risk.

While investing in decarbonization is crucial to avoid the worst effects of climate change, coastal cities must also determine how they will adapt to a world increasingly impacted by climate change.

That's exactly what La Baule is doing. Since Xynthia, 8km of seawalls have been reinforced and heightened near the port to minimize damages from future floodings.

To fight coastal erosion, the city has financed an innovative project. Ecoplage is a complex system of trenches and pipes to drain the sand, make it compact and prevent it from being swallowed by the tide.

Climate change will be costly for cities like La Baule, and it already is. Ecoplage's drainage system cost 1.4 million euros, while building a kilometre of seawall is expected to cost 1 million euros.

At the national level, coastal erosion threatens 1.4 million French citizens and 850,000 jobs. A rise in sea levels of 45 centimetres could cost the country between 3 and 4 billion euros per year by 2040.

Writing this article has been quite emotional, imagining how a place I cherish so much could fare in the face of climate change and an increasing amount of extreme weather events.

Maybe naively, I hope that more people will take climate action and interest in environmental topics as they see how their homes and loved ones are or could be impacted by a warming world.